Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Best* Teams To Never Win The Super Bowl: 15-11

Introduction
20-16

I don't feel like I have to type out an intro anymore.

15 - 2001 St. Louis Rams (14-2, NFC Champs, 503 PF, 273 PA, 13.4 SRS)

Different city, different era, same franchise we left off with.

This also makes the first team on this list to even make the Super Bowl, which is weird.

This is also a team whose story is so well known it's probably not necessary to even talk about. In 1999, the Rams were a storybook team whose grocer quarterback had come out of nowhere to turn around a ruined franchise and take them to the promised land. The following year their defense set back their offense mightily, so they overhauled it. The result was one of the most efficient teams at dispatching opponents the league had ever seen.

This was a complete team. The defense was merely good, not quite dominant, but when the offense averages nearly seven yards a play -- a hilarious total at the time -- it doesn't need to dominate. In two years, they went from a cool story to a scary juggernaut set to swallow up the Little Team that Could.

It's funny to think about this time where the Patriots were plucky underdogs who the nation was rooting for to finish off their own storybook.

The Patriots, of course, now know just exactly how they made the Rams feel, but that's a later story. In the mean time. . .

14 - 1967 Los Angeles Rams (11-1-2, NFL Coastal Champs, 398 PF, 196 PA, 13.6 SRS)

More Rams!

It's an interesting quirk that, over the 47 years of the Super Bowl and margins of victory, it just so happens that the Rams take three consecutive spots. Especially when the middle appearances is out of St. Louis.

Of course, the Rams have also been a game short of the Super Bowl six times, which has to suck.

This is the team that kept the 18th ranked Colts out of the playoffs via a margin of victory tie-breaker, so you should have expected them to pop up soon. I don't remember '67, since I wasn't even close to born, but it seems like a really fun division race. By the Simple Rating System, the two teams were far and away the best in the NFL. The Rams, in particular, had the league's best offense and defense in points allowed, and yards per pass, as well as the league's most efficient rushing attack. The left side of the defensive line had Merlin Olsen and Deacon Jones,

This was not one of the six Rams teams to fall a game short, though. After keeping the Colts out, they couldn't even win a game themselves, falling to the Cowboys and setting up the Ice Bowl.

While the Rams were the best team by SRS in the NFL, though, another team in 1967 was even better from the AFL.

13 - 1968 Dallas Cowboys (12-2, NFL Capitol Champs, 431 PF, 186 PA, 13.8 SRS)

A year after putting a team on this list, the Cowboys end up a spot higher themselves.

Dallas was already getting the reputation of being an annual disappointment, the league's bridesmaids, before this. Their losses to the Packers in the prior two Championship Games stand out on NFL Films, due to how historic those games are, but this team was probably the most disappointing yet.

The Cowboys did everything well offensively, and shut down the run on defense. They had historic talent all over the place. They had a fan base that was expecting them to burst through the door eventually.

This was also the last season of their first star quarterback Don Meredith.

With Vince Lombardi out of Green Bay, with an even better team on the field, this would seem like a prime spot to put Dallas football on the Super Bowl map.

Then they didn't even win a game. The Cowboys' relative weakness was their passing D, and Paul Warfield caught 86 yards against them, as Cleveland knocked Dallas out in the first round. The exact same thing happened the next year, too, with Warfield gaining 99 yards.

There is one argument for calling this a less disappointing Cowboys team. Yes, they should have made it past one round, but in there way was the best team in the NFL. In fact, by SRS, the Cowboys weren't even in spitting distance of being the best team in '68. Making the Super Bowl would have taken a tremendous upset.

Any amateur fan of NFL history knows where this is going, but that's a few posts away.

12 - 1983 Washington Redskins (14-2, NFC Champs, 541 PF, 332 PA, 13.9 SRS)

Now we're starting to get to the meat of the list, the teams that are thrown around frequently as "would have been the best if they'd won the Super Bowl."

Of course, by SRS, there are seven teams ahead of the Redskins, most of whom actually came before '83. A lot of that was because of a mediocre defense. Against the pass, the Redskins ranked 22nd in YPA. Now, yeah, it wasn't as big of a deal in '83, but even then, if teams are getting more than six yards every time they drop back against you, there's a problem. They were also helped by a ridiculous +43 turnover margin, which I'm willing to bet was largely flukey.

The offense was so good, though, they were still emphatically a great team. They had perhaps the most legendary offensive line in NFL history, protecting perhaps the most annoying QB in NFL history -- passing to a couple of Hall of Fame receivers -- and leading the way for a Hall of Fame runningback. When you look at the older teams on this team, you don't see "541 PF" often. That's not even an out of place number by modern NFL standards. In fact, the '83 Skins still have the sixth highest PPG total ever, and held the record for 15 years. When you score that much, it's okay to have a questionable defense.

It is not okay to allow Marcus Allen to run for 191 yards.

11 - 1968 Kansas City Chiefs (12-2,  AFL West Co-Champs,  371 PF, 170 PA, 14.0 SRS)

The second team this post alone from 1968.

AFL teams on the list feels a little strange. Yes, this was the very year the AFL went on to win the Super Bowl. Yes, this very franchise would win another Super Bowl for the Americans the next year.

Still, while the AFL was obviously good enough to demand a merger, I do not believe they were good enough to say a there was the same degree of parity in the league as the NFL, which would be necessary to justify a 14.0 per-game margin of victory, even when adjusted for league average.

That said, the Chiefs of this era were clearly a great team. They were two years removed from playing in the first Super Bowl, and what they were a year from was just mentioned. They were balanced, they were a revolutionary passing attack in a revolutionary league.

This could be considered the second team on this list not to have made the playoffs, depending on how you look at it. The Chiefs tied for first in their division, which in the AFL meant a playoff game, a concept long forgotten by football. Like many teams on this list, the Chiefs were not a choke job, they just happened to have a great season in a year where another team was even better, and that other team ended their year before the (planned) playoffs even began.

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